Bitcoin Tsunami in sight: Wave ride or dive?
Square turns into a BTC whale – Bitcoin course leans towards 11,000 US dollars
While Bitcoin whales steer into foreign waters, octopuses attest to a course buoyancy. The market update.
The jump over the 11,000-US dollar hurdle gave new impetus to the largest crypto currency. With a 24-hour plus of 1.1 per cent the Bitcoin Evolution course (BTC) notes to editorship deadline with 11.446 US Dollar and books thus on week view an increase in value of 6.5 per cent.
Bitcoin price in weekly chart
Bitcoin whales drift away
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The Bitcoin ecosystem has experienced a large influx of bulging wallets since the beginning of 2020. In recent months, the whale population has risen to almost 1,900 individuals.
Since the beginning of September, however, the number has been declining slightly and is thus declining for the first time since 2019.
As Glassnode states in its latest Week-on-Chain report, the decline in whales could be a bullish signal. In the BTC past, a simultaneous influx of small investors began with the whale withdrawal. This trend is also „in contrast to the widespread opinion that the selling pressure of whales is driving the price down“.
The above chart shows that the decline in the whale population in BTC’s history began shortly before subsequent growth phases. Even though the price currently shows only a small bend downwards, „it could mean the beginning of another bull market“. If the Bitcoin price confirms the trend of the last few years, a price increase would be the consequence.
Bitcoin and its correlations
According to the latest Kraken Monthly Report for September, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market floor remained at a high level. On September 4, the correlation fell to an 8-month low of -0.27, but then rose to a mid-month high of 0.71 in September, closing at 0.60. Kraken attributes the high level to a simultaneous sideways consolidation and historically poor performance of both markets.
Bitcoin correlation with the S&P 500
The correlation to gold also started in September at the low for the month of 0.24, but increased over the course of the month. The positive correlation between Bitcoin and the precious metal rose to 0.53 in the first half of the month, closing at 0.40.
Bitcoin Correlation with Gold
The correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index followed the trend that has been emerging since May and remained largely in negative territory. Only on September 4 did the correlation briefly turn positive. According to Kraken, the decoupling from the US dollar was the result of the central banks‘ key interest rate policy and an investor flight to safe havens.
Bitcoin correlation with the US dollar index
Based on the historical performance and with a view to the coming weeks, Kraken considers a share price increase of eleven percent in October compared to September to be realistic:
If the past gives an indication of the future, one should be prepared for October to exceed September, just as in 8 of the last 9 years, and to achieve a return of about 11 percent.
Thus Bitcoin would quote just under 12,000 US dollars at the end of October. The report refers however also to the fact that Bitcoin compared with the average net yield in six of nine past months underperformed. If Bitcoin follows the trend, the price potential for October is below the certified value. On the other hand the comparison shows that Bitcoin still far under its potential performs and against end of the yearly to the Bestform could run up.